What did the G7 and Nato summits really mean for Ukraine? | Nato

Over five days, leaders of G7 and NATO shifted from the idyllic backdrop of the Bavarian Alps towards the more concrete plains of Madrid. However, there was never a shortage in photo opportunities, trumpeting democracy, multibillion dollar announcements, or pledges of unwavering resolve to help Ukraine.

However, as the leaders return home to face more mundane domestic problems, it’s legitimate to wonder how much these promises will change the balance on the battlefield or make Vladimir Putin doubtful. Although these summits were meant to reassure domestic electorates, and in lesser measure to Ukraine, they were really intended to reach one man: The Russian president.

He gave off an air of insouciance, which is not surprising. In central Asia, on his first trip overseas since the war began, he claimed: “The work is going quietly, rhythmically, the troops are moving and are reaching the lines that have been given to them as milestones. Everything is going according to plan.”

Although the sudden and mysterious withdrawal of the Russian garrison at Snake Island (measuring 600m by 700m) might suggest otherwise it is not the beginning of the removal all Russian troops from Ukraine, which was a war objective that Liz Truss, the UK foreign secretary, stated as real on Thursday.

Volodymyr was not the council of war, so this is part of the problem. Zelenskiy was required partly because Joe Biden did NOT want to play into Russian propaganda portraying Nato, other than as a defensive alliance and the armoured guardian for its territory.

The Nato summit was largely about the consequences of Russia’s invasion, not for Ukraine but for countries already inside or about to join Nato. It was about “defending every inch of Nato territory”, as Biden put it.

Ukraine does not directly benefit from the admission into Nato of the “two paladins of peace”, as Boris Johnson described Sweden and Finland. The same applies to the sevenfold increase in Nato forces on high alert, the establishment of the first permanent US operational headquarters on the alliance’s eastern flank in Poland, the increase in the number of US troops in the region, or a new 10-year strategy that dispenses of any notion of partnership with Russia. Their importance is not diminished. On paper, the intention to build such high-readiness forces is the greatest systemic – and mental – change in Nato planning since the end of the cold war, but it has no impact on the killing fields of Donbas. To paraphrase Zelenskiy, he does not need a new Nato strategic concept – he needs ammunition.

But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t progress. For one, Emmanuel Macron, the French president, was more direct in his criticisms of Putin and clearer that there are no avenues to a ceasefire. Paris does not have a faction for premature peace if it exists.

Zelenskiy stated that the summit was about politics, weapons, finances.

Finance: Ukraine is spending $5bn per month, as its economy and exports decline. But the US is ready to help. Biden promised to provide $800m more in defense assistance over the next few days, including an advanced air defense system. The UK, the second biggest supplier of military aid, agreed to spend another €1.15bn of military aid to Ukraine. Germany, going round in circles about delivering arms, has been better at subsidising Ukraine’s economy.

A further “recovery summit”, dedicated to the reconstruction of Ukraine, will be held in Lugano on 4-5 July, which Zelenskiy himself is slated to attend.

On weapons, before the summit, Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, gave an inventory of Ukraine’s needs: 1,000 155mm-calibre howitzers, 300 multiple-launch rocket systems, 500 tanks, 2,000 armoured vehicles, and 1,000 drones.

Officials claim that 700 armoured vehicles have been lost by the Ukrainian forces in the last three-months. They need replacements immediately. France and Spain responded by offering tanks or armoured personnel carriers.

They need ammunition and artillery, but most importantly. Russian artillery has been firing between 40,000-60,000 missiles per day while Ukrainian artillery can fire between 5,000 and 6,000 missiles. Worse, the west doesn’t have ammunition for the Soviet-era artillery systems Ukraine uses. Although the US has so far delivered four Himars rockets, more delivery from the UK and the US are expected. They are being used almost exclusively in the Luhansk region to strike Russian ammunition depots.

Without a significant improvement in the supply of weapons and their speed, there will be no counter-offensive for the summer.

There is also urgency. Putin believes time is on his side and that Russia “can pound the longest”. As the Ukrainian forces are limited in their ability to withstand a certain amount of attrition, western politicians cannot risk the wrath from their electorates for too long. The proposals from the US to cut the price of Russian oil, and from Italy to curb the price of Russian piped gas – discussed at length at the G7 – were probably the two most significant ideas to emerge from the summits. These ideas are still in construction, Macron acknowledged. They require a lot more work if we are to hit Russia’s economy and protect European consumers. The summit ended and US state department officials were already in London to seek ideas from the Treasury.

Gustav Gressel, a security analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, identifies a “western policy preference to fight this war as an economic contest as opposed to a military one”. But, he argues, looking at things developing on the ground, the other way round would be better: “The Russian economy could be stabilised by Moscow, arguably at a lower point, but still. Economics is not Putin’s playground, and he will not have his geopolitical ambition tamed by economic setbacks. On the other hand, breaking Russia’s offensive capabilities by providing Kyiv with the tools to do so (tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, artillery, air defence) would be the cheaper solution.”

These summits and the next few months will not show whether these tools will be available.