Does David Frost’s claim that Brexit is working stack up? | Brexit

On 23 June 2016, slightly more than half of the UK’s voters, 51.9%, backed leaving the European Union, sending shock waves around the world as the UK started the painful process of divorce from the bloc.

The result also sowed the seeds of one of the most divisive periods in British political history, with the resignation of two Conservative prime ministers, the sacking of 21 Tory rebels and a comprehensive victory for Boris Johnson on the back of his promise of an “oven-ready Brexit deal”.

Now on the sixth anniversary of the referendum, one of the central figures in prosecuting that deal has given his verdict: “Brexit is working,” says Lord Frost, adding that those who say it is hitting the economy have “an axe to grind”.

So do Frost claims stack up?

Is Brexit working?

While it may be too early to tell whether his statement could be supported by evidence, Frost was asked by Anand Menon, professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London and director of UK in a Changing Europe, to examine it a different way – what evidence in future would convince him Brexit had failed.

“An interesting question,” was his response. The answer was not in trade figures, but in gut politics. Would Britain’s divisions have healed?

“One piece of evidence of failure would be if we are still debating this in five or six years’ time in the same way. I think it is to succeed it needs to settle in the British polity.”

Economy – what Lord Frost says:

He said the predictions of a 4% contraction in Britain’s gross domestic product used by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) were not fact but “zombie figures” based on a government economic services report in 2018 that relied on academic studies of the impact of opening up “badly run ex-communist and ex-authoritarian autarchic economies”.

He was referring specifically to a 79 page report, EU Exit Long term Economic Analysis Technical Reference Paper. This report examined five Brexit deal models and their effect on the 12 regions of the UK, taking into account both trade and nontrade barriers.

Frost, however said its predictions could “not be supported by objective analysis” with UK growth “at much the same pace as other G7 countries since the referendum and goods exports to the EU “at the highest level ever”.

He also suggested that it was impossible to know the exact impact of Brexit as trade figures were distorted by disruptions caused by the pandemic, supply chain crisis, and the way in Ukraine.

What other people think:

The OBR’s predictions have not changed in four years. The OBR’s March 2022 forecast is the most recent. said that the trade deal Frost sealed would “reduce long-run productivity by 4% relative to remaining in the EU”.

It said that reflected its view “that the increase in non-tariff barriers” such as red tape, standards compliance, was an “impediment to the exploitation of comparative advantage”.

According to OECD figures, the UK was ahead France, Italy and Germany in terms of percentage change in its GDP in the last quarter of 2019 and first quarter 2022. However, the UK was significantly behind the EU as a group and substantially behind the US and Australia in the G20.

This week’s Resolution Foundation report saidSince 2019, Britain has seen a sharp drop in trade openness (total commerce as a percentage of GDP), which fell eight percentage points. It noted that this was compared to a decline of two percentage points for France.

“The full effect of the TCA [trade and cooperation agreement] will take years to be felt but this move towards a more closed economy,” saidThe authors.

Menon said: “Early evidence suggests there is a Brexit impact and recent Resolution Foundation analysis suggests that, over the medium term, this will be significant.”

What Frost says about the Northern Ireland Protocol:

This remains unfinished Brexit business and the “biggest problem” caused by Britain’s exit from the EU. “The delicately balanced compromise that we put in place in 2019, recognising that we were running high levels of risk in doing so, has come apart much more quickly than most of us thought,” Frost said.

He blamed the EU for his problems. saidDespite being sensitive, refused to accept compromises.

What other people think:

This is completely consistent with government policy. It has been met by a chorus of disapproval and support within the Brexit backbench and conditional assistance with the Northern Ireland unionist communities.

Any other questions?

According to reports, Frost may have had some input in the creation of the controversial bill to repeal parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Unscripted remarks indicate that there was no meeting of minds. He expressed surprise that article 16 mechanism had not been triggered, arguing it would have bee a “quicker” way to resolve the dispute with the EU.

This could reinforce the view that government’s plan all along was to bring forward legislation as a blunt negotiation tool.